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Saturday, November 20, 2010
Opportunity Cost or Voodoo Economics?
.....................
18 comments:
Anonymous
said...
PJ, your reasoning is so flawed its simply beyond comprehension. There would have been a semblance of logic in your arguments IF there was no fully operational international airport in St. Lucia. Correct me if I am wrong but I have not seen or heard the results of any scientific analyses which has deemed Hewannora as hopelessly inadequate at the moment. Thus while pre-Thomas re-development plans MAY have been feasible, not even the most reckless economist will view this proposed undertaking as a priority at the moment. I will not be surprised if many will deem it as fiscal irresponsibility to even contemplate that route.
According to your article:
"The idea is to make that airport more comfortable for visitors and locals alike by meeting the needs and expectations of international travelers after its completion."
That's fair enough, but I would imagine visitors would be thoroughly unimpressed after luxuriating in a comfortable airport to be confronted by badly damaged, crumbling, unsafe or non-existent infrastructure.
Here is another quote from your article:
"Given the huge economic (some say fundamental) benefit to a country’s development, which is more important, its ability to export through modern air and sea ports facilities or, an excellent internal road network but lacking rapid communications with the outside world? In other words what is the opportunity cost of forgoing the former for the latter? Put another way, which is more likely to hasten economic progress and prosperity; good air and sea ports or, good roads minus up-to-date air and sea port facilities?"
Your arguments here are best described as convoluted. Do you seriously believe that it makes sense to engage in MODIFICATIONS of existing pathways to the outside world while internally, the country is in a mess? If goods and services cannot be moved freely and quickly within the country, then focussing primarily on UPGRADING fully operational external communications systems, is a bit pointless.
Anyone reading this will be under the impression that there are no functional air or sea ports in St. Lucia. You also give the impression that there is a clamour for "an excellent internal road network". At the moment, just a "navigable" road network will welcomed.
BECAUSE YOU WERE THERE FOR 10 YEARS PROMISE THE COUNTRY TO REDEVELOP THE AIRPORT, YOU PAID OVER $500,000.00 FOR A PLAN WHICH ST.LUCIAN'S HAS NEVER SEEN AH?
BUT IT IS SUSPECTED YOU POCKETED THE MONEY AS USUAL I THINK THIS QUESTION SHOULD BE RAISED UP ONCE AGAIN WHERE IS THE PLAN THAT YOU SAID TO THE PEOPLE OF ST.LUCIA YOU PAID OVER HALF A MILLION DOLLAR FOR? THAT WAS IN YEAR 2000TO 2001 WE NEVER SAW IT MR KENTONY.
AS THE JAMAICAN SLANG GOES . WE A SIT AND A WATH YOU RED EYE EVEL MINDED WICKED TRYING TO STOP GOODNESS FROM FLOWING
@Anonymous said..."Talk about PJ being flawed? Well look at your 3x 1 lol"...November 20, 2010 8:32 PM; it is an honest mistake by the first blogger. This has happened to me on a number of occasions, when my blog would be posted more than once - once, it was posted 5 times, to my horror!!
Dwell on the foresighted message and logical analysis of the first blogger, rather than talking nonsense. The first blogger made me understand the airport brouhaha in a way of thinking outside the box - LOGICAL CONTRIBUTION.
What did I learned from your blog - ABSOLUTELY, BUT ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!
To the poster who is focussed on my 3x1 submissions, evidently you did not experience any issues while publish your post. My first 2 publishing attempts resulted in error pages being displayed thus it was quite reasonable to presume that the submissions failed.
Anyway that is hardly an issue. Consider the following for a moment. Our rebuilding efforts will be heavily dependent on loans, grants and the generosity of foreign governments. Our usual benefactors - the UK and US are currently facing their own economic woes. In fact, the Cameron administration in the UK has just completed the most severe cost-cutting budget exercise in decades. Hardly any sector including - education, the police, the army and the welfare system - was spared the axe in an effort to reduce the country's debts to a manageable level. Even some proposed projects were cancelled.
Now imagine our PM taking his begging bowl to the UK and US seeking assistance to reconstruct our country while still insisting on the airport redevelopment. Isn't it likely in the current circumstances that he will be regarded as being disingenuous, or accused of misplacing his priorities, by proceeding with a non-critical project while expecting aid from countries which are themselves making sacrifices?
This is just something else to ponder.
P.S. to the moderator of this blog, please delete my superfluous posts (2 & 3)
(P.J)PERFECT JACKASS)I RELLY DONT EXPECT YOU TO LEARN ANYTHING.
BUT IF THE SHOES WERE ON THE OTHER FEET THE AIRPORT PROJECT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE BEST THING IN THE SOUTH BUT I DON'T BLAME YOU,
YOU PEOPLE HAS RED EYE AND IF A PROJECT DON'T HAVE PERSONAL GAIN FOR YOU (UFO'S)LIKE THE WEST COAST ROAD/THE SHOC ROUND ABOUT ETC ETC AND I CAN GO ON AND ON SO LOOK PLEASE WE ARE NOT STUPID,
YOU RED EYE LACK THE VISION TO SEE WHERE THIS AIRPORT WILL TAKE US IN THE FUTURE DO YOU REMEMBER IN THE EARLY 90'S WHEN THE ROSO DAM WERE UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND ALL YOULL WERE SAYING WAS DAM DE DAM AND THE TUNNEL ROAD AND AGAIN YOULL WERE SAYING SOME PEOPLE HAD TUNNEL VISION NOW LOOK HOW THESE PROJECTS HAS BE COME SO DEPENDABLE IF THE DAM SHUTS FOR 5 MINUTES YOU ALREADY WANT'S TO DIE SO LET THE GOVERNMENT BY THE PEOPLE WORK FOR THE PEOPLE.
THIS LOOKS LIKE KENNY AND TONY EDITION HOW SAD? [/quote]
Are you saying that the original article is the King and Josie edition?
Pre-UWP Josie would undoubtedly be singing a different tune. I could just imagine the then militant firebrand taking the administration to task for misdirecting our limited resources.
That is why I refuse to take individuals of your ilk (party hacks) and partisan politicians seriously. The advancement of St. Lucia usually features quite low (if at all) with regard to their decisions, judgements and the issues that they support or reject. Instead their loyalty is predominantly dictated by party affiliation and selfish agendas.
HEAR THIS- WAS OUR RESOURCES LIMITED?(WHEN KENNY TOOK $40,000,000.00)OF OUR MONEY AND GIVE IT TO SOMETHING WHEN STLUCIA HAS NO GAIN IN IT???? ANSER ME THIS SPIN ON THIS FOR ME MR(P.J)YOU REMEMBER THIS ROCHAMEL WHERE IS THE BENEFIT TO STLUCIA???I THINK THOSE-UFO'S SHOULD KEEP QUIET
A LITTLE REMINDER (HE WHO CANNOT REMEMBER HIS PAST MUST BE CONSTANTLY REMINDED
You BIAS little thing, Rochamel is the only thing you can remember in the past for us to be reminded. What about what is happening RIGHT NOW under YOUR and our noses, by this incompetent government? What you are trying will NEVER work, because we Lucians are not stupid. UWP left St Lucians illiterate after 30 years in office. Thanks to Kenny, he provided EVERYONE of us with a school place up to secondary school level. We are not stupid, we know a government that have worked and can work. You can play your broken and tired of Rochamel record how you want. Kenny will be back to make St Lucia the ENVY of the caribbean as he had started. When SLP was in office it was the very first time Barbadians were coming to work in St Lucia, there were many of them working at the hotel which you call Rochamel. We St Lucians KNOW ALL Kenny achievements, because they are all there for everyone to see and we are NOT better off now than when Kenny was in office. PLEASE list some of the achievements of the present government if there is any.
YES YES YES HE MADE LOTS OF POCKET PROGRESS I WILL NAME A FEW FOR YOU
1/COMPENSATION EVENTS$16,000,000.00 2/PROLONGATION COST$18,000,000.00 3/DELAY AND DISRUPTION$11,000,000.00 ALL THIS WAS IN US DOLLARS
THIS IS THE SAME THING LABLED DIFFERENTLY THIS IS JUST SOME OF THE PROGRES HE MADE OFF WITH WHILE WAS IN OFFICE THERE IS MORE
4/BLUE CORAL STARTED AT $15,000,000.00 AND ENDED UP AT $33.5,000,000.00 ALMOST 110%COST OVERUNS. 5/THE WESTCOAST ROAD CONTRACT WAS ISSUED AT EC$41,000,000.00 ENDED UP AT $150,000,000.00 OVER 100%PERCENT COST OVERUNS
6/GRAND REVIERE IN DENNERY CONTRACT WAS GIVEN AT EC$23,000,000.00 ENDED UP AT $73,000,000.00 I CAN GO ON AND ON THIS IS WHAT HE LEFT US WITH OH WHAT GREAT ACHIEVEMENTS THIS MAN HAD COST ST.LUCIA
THIS IS JUST A FRACTION OF WHAT HE DID I AM NOT EVEN GETTING INTO THE NCA CELL PHONES ETC ETC WE WILL NOT FORGET COME NEXT ELECTIONS
This is by far one of the most bias analysis ever published. I concur entirely with the first blogger...he was right on point. A little addition, however,PJ stated "...although it need not concern us here, the other ingredients for economic development are capital markets, knowledge, and wise use of land and the acquiring of private property and its protection by the State." Did PJ researched those domains before publishing his article to the wide audience of intelligent St.Lucians? Very unlikely since the current administration has seen it better to dilute those ingredients to a point where true economic development cannot be realized, at least not in the near future.
PJ criticized others of voodoo economics but he is actually condoning the same based on all the lame excuses he has provided. Our leaders need to re-prioritize efforts especially the Hewanorra project (estimated at 400US million). The current estimation, which is flawed at best is estimated at 500US million...hope PM King and his men will be able to provide additional apologies especially when potential lenders estimations may very well be higher.
We need better leadership if St.Lucia is survive this economic down-turn. It's my hope that the media personnel and others who see it best to support this inept government and a PM whi has a penchant on blaming others for his inability to advance himself educationally will not be the very ones crying foul when the selected benefits or prizes become dwindled into complete oblivion.
I (the first poster) wish to express my thanks to the poster who submitted the list of "cost overruns" incurred by projects implemented by the previous administration. If those figures are correct (I have not been back home to St. Lucia in ages so cannot verify them) then this makes interesting and disturbing reading.
Most developed countries would have been impacted negatively by such mismanagement far less a resource-constrained nation as ours. I am not a legal or economic eagle but aren't these contracts tendered? Furthermore once they have been signed aren't any additional costs borne thereafter the responsibility of the contractor? If that is the case then why on earth are the St. Lucian tax-payers being shafted by their budgetary ineptitude?
Against this backdrop of such potentially crippling financial blows, that is why we have to be ultra-cautious. The current situation makes the need for fiscal circumspection even more dire. I get the sneaky impression from certain posters that the seeming profligacy of the SLP administration presents the UWP with a full licence to engage in wanton wastage antics. This attitude will get us to economic ruin pretty quickly.
I want to clarify one point. I am neither a proponent nor a critic of the proposed airport re-development scheme. However when Señor Tomás unleashed his fury earlier this month, lives, livelihoods, the environment, the economy - in fact the whole country - changed catastrophically.
By most accounts - even if adopting an optimistic outlook - it will take us years to recover from this disaster. That is why certain priorities, plans (including the Hewanorra upgrade) and expectations MUST similarly change to reflect our current circumstances. What was feasible pre-Thomas may not necessarily be so at the moment. As such our focus needs to be re-adjusted accordingly.
Let us not forget that it is not only roads that require urgent attention. Numerous other areas such as our schools, at least one hospital, our agricultural sector - especially bananas, our water catchments and housing were dealt a severe battering. These include some critical sectors which will need immediate and possibly long-term assistance.
18 comments:
PJ, your reasoning is so flawed its simply beyond comprehension. There would have been a semblance of logic in your arguments IF there was no fully operational international airport in St. Lucia. Correct me if I am wrong but I have not seen or heard the results of any scientific analyses which has deemed Hewannora as hopelessly inadequate at the moment. Thus while pre-Thomas re-development plans MAY have been feasible, not even the most reckless economist will view this proposed undertaking as a priority at the moment. I will not be surprised if many will deem it as fiscal irresponsibility to even contemplate that route.
According to your article:
"The idea is to make that airport more comfortable for visitors and locals alike by meeting the needs and expectations of international travelers after its completion."
That's fair enough, but I would imagine visitors would be thoroughly unimpressed after luxuriating in a comfortable airport to be confronted by badly damaged, crumbling, unsafe or non-existent infrastructure.
Here is another quote from your article:
"Given the huge economic (some say fundamental) benefit to a country’s development, which is more important, its ability to export through modern air and sea ports facilities or, an excellent internal road network but lacking rapid communications with the outside world? In other words what is the opportunity cost of forgoing the former for the latter? Put another way, which is more likely to hasten economic progress and prosperity; good air and sea ports or, good roads minus up-to-date air and sea port facilities?"
Your arguments here are best described as convoluted. Do you seriously believe that it makes sense to engage in MODIFICATIONS of existing pathways to the outside world while internally, the country is in a mess? If goods and services cannot be moved freely and quickly within the country, then focussing primarily on UPGRADING fully operational external communications systems, is a bit pointless.
Anyone reading this will be under the impression that there are no functional air or sea ports in St. Lucia. You also give the impression that there is a clamour for "an excellent internal road network". At the moment, just a "navigable" road network will welcomed.
Talk about PJ being flawed? Well look at your 3x 1 lol
THIS LOOKS LIKE KENNY AND TONY EDITION HOW SAD?
BECAUSE YOU WERE THERE FOR 10 YEARS PROMISE THE COUNTRY TO REDEVELOP THE AIRPORT, YOU PAID OVER $500,000.00 FOR A PLAN WHICH ST.LUCIAN'S HAS NEVER SEEN AH?
BUT IT IS SUSPECTED YOU POCKETED THE MONEY AS USUAL I THINK THIS QUESTION SHOULD BE RAISED UP ONCE AGAIN WHERE IS THE PLAN THAT YOU SAID TO THE PEOPLE OF ST.LUCIA YOU PAID OVER HALF A MILLION DOLLAR FOR? THAT WAS IN YEAR 2000TO 2001 WE NEVER SAW IT MR KENTONY.
AS THE JAMAICAN SLANG GOES . WE A SIT AND A WATH YOU RED EYE EVEL MINDED WICKED TRYING TO STOP GOODNESS FROM FLOWING
@Anonymous said..."Talk about PJ being flawed? Well look at your 3x 1 lol"...November 20, 2010 8:32 PM; it is an honest mistake by the first blogger. This has happened to me on a number of occasions, when my blog would be posted more than once - once, it was posted 5 times, to my horror!!
Dwell on the foresighted message and logical analysis of the first blogger, rather than talking nonsense. The first blogger made me understand the airport brouhaha
in a way of thinking outside the box - LOGICAL CONTRIBUTION.
What did I learned from your blog - ABSOLUTELY, BUT ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!
LOL- JACKASS!!
To the poster who is focussed on my 3x1 submissions, evidently you did not experience any issues while publish your post. My first 2 publishing attempts resulted in error pages being displayed thus it was quite reasonable to presume that the submissions failed.
Anyway that is hardly an issue. Consider the following for a moment. Our rebuilding efforts will be heavily dependent on loans, grants and the generosity of foreign governments. Our usual benefactors - the UK and US are currently facing their own economic woes. In fact, the Cameron administration in the UK has just completed the most severe cost-cutting budget exercise in decades. Hardly any sector including - education, the police, the army and the welfare system - was spared the axe in an effort to reduce the country's debts to a manageable level. Even some proposed projects were cancelled.
Now imagine our PM taking his begging bowl to the UK and US seeking assistance to reconstruct our country while still insisting on the airport redevelopment. Isn't it likely in the current circumstances that he will be regarded as being disingenuous, or accused of misplacing his priorities, by proceeding with a non-critical project while expecting aid from countries which are themselves making sacrifices?
This is just something else to ponder.
P.S. to the moderator of this blog, please delete my superfluous posts (2 & 3)
(P.J)PERFECT JACKASS)I RELLY DONT EXPECT YOU TO LEARN ANYTHING.
BUT IF THE SHOES WERE ON THE OTHER FEET THE AIRPORT PROJECT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE BEST THING IN THE SOUTH BUT I DON'T BLAME YOU,
YOU PEOPLE HAS RED EYE AND IF A PROJECT DON'T HAVE PERSONAL GAIN FOR YOU (UFO'S)LIKE THE WEST COAST ROAD/THE SHOC ROUND ABOUT ETC ETC AND I CAN GO ON AND ON SO LOOK PLEASE WE ARE NOT STUPID,
YOU RED EYE LACK THE VISION TO SEE WHERE THIS AIRPORT WILL TAKE US IN THE FUTURE DO YOU REMEMBER
IN THE EARLY 90'S WHEN THE ROSO DAM WERE UNDER CONSTRUCTION AND ALL YOULL WERE SAYING WAS DAM DE DAM AND THE TUNNEL ROAD AND AGAIN YOULL WERE SAYING SOME PEOPLE HAD TUNNEL VISION NOW LOOK HOW THESE PROJECTS HAS BE COME SO DEPENDABLE IF THE DAM SHUTS FOR 5 MINUTES YOU ALREADY WANT'S TO DIE SO LET THE GOVERNMENT BY THE PEOPLE WORK FOR THE PEOPLE.
[quote]
Anonymous said...
THIS LOOKS LIKE KENNY AND TONY EDITION HOW SAD?
[/quote]
Are you saying that the original article is the King and Josie edition?
Pre-UWP Josie would undoubtedly be singing a different tune. I could just imagine the then militant firebrand taking the administration to task for misdirecting our limited resources.
That is why I refuse to take individuals of your ilk (party hacks) and partisan politicians seriously. The advancement of St. Lucia usually features quite low (if at all) with regard to their decisions, judgements and the issues that they support or reject. Instead their loyalty is predominantly dictated by party affiliation and selfish agendas.
I think that we should still go with the airport thingy, it's needed in today's world.
HEAR THIS- WAS OUR RESOURCES LIMITED?(WHEN KENNY TOOK $40,000,000.00)OF OUR MONEY AND GIVE IT TO SOMETHING WHEN STLUCIA HAS NO GAIN IN IT???? ANSER ME THIS SPIN ON THIS FOR ME MR(P.J)YOU REMEMBER THIS
ROCHAMEL WHERE IS THE BENEFIT TO STLUCIA???I THINK THOSE-UFO'S SHOULD KEEP QUIET
A LITTLE REMINDER (HE WHO CANNOT REMEMBER HIS PAST MUST BE CONSTANTLY REMINDED
You BIAS little thing, Rochamel is the only thing you can remember in the past for us to be reminded. What about what is happening RIGHT NOW under YOUR and our noses, by this incompetent government? What you are trying will NEVER work, because we Lucians are not stupid. UWP left St Lucians illiterate after 30 years in office. Thanks to Kenny, he provided EVERYONE of us with a school place up to secondary school level. We are not stupid, we know a government that have worked and can work. You can play your broken and tired of Rochamel record how you want. Kenny will be back to make St Lucia the ENVY of the caribbean as he had started. When SLP was in office it was the very first time Barbadians were coming to work in St Lucia, there were many of them working at the hotel which you call Rochamel. We St Lucians KNOW ALL Kenny achievements, because they are all there for everyone to see and we are NOT better off now than when Kenny was in office. PLEASE list some of the achievements of the present government if there is any.
THAT'S RIGHT, RIGHT, RIGHT.
No one should deny the SLP and Kenny factor in the progress of Saint Lucia.
1997 - 2006 were GREAT years!!
YES YES YES HE MADE LOTS OF POCKET PROGRESS I WILL NAME A FEW FOR YOU
1/COMPENSATION EVENTS$16,000,000.00
2/PROLONGATION COST$18,000,000.00
3/DELAY AND DISRUPTION$11,000,000.00
ALL THIS WAS IN US DOLLARS
THIS IS THE SAME THING LABLED DIFFERENTLY THIS IS JUST SOME OF THE PROGRES HE MADE OFF WITH WHILE WAS IN OFFICE THERE IS MORE
4/BLUE CORAL STARTED AT $15,000,000.00 AND ENDED UP AT $33.5,000,000.00 ALMOST 110%COST OVERUNS.
5/THE WESTCOAST ROAD CONTRACT WAS ISSUED AT EC$41,000,000.00 ENDED UP AT $150,000,000.00 OVER 100%PERCENT COST OVERUNS
6/GRAND REVIERE IN DENNERY CONTRACT WAS GIVEN AT EC$23,000,000.00 ENDED UP AT $73,000,000.00 I CAN GO ON AND ON
THIS IS WHAT HE LEFT US WITH OH WHAT GREAT ACHIEVEMENTS THIS MAN HAD COST ST.LUCIA
THIS IS JUST A FRACTION OF WHAT HE DID I AM NOT EVEN GETTING INTO THE NCA CELL PHONES ETC ETC WE WILL NOT FORGET COME NEXT ELECTIONS
This is by far one of the most bias analysis ever published. I concur entirely with the first blogger...he was right on point. A little addition, however,PJ stated "...although it need not concern us here, the other ingredients for economic development are capital markets, knowledge, and wise use of land and the acquiring of private property and its protection by the State." Did PJ researched those domains before publishing his article to the wide audience of intelligent St.Lucians? Very unlikely since the current administration has seen it better to dilute those ingredients to a point where true economic development cannot be realized, at least not in the near future.
PJ criticized others of voodoo economics but he is actually condoning the same based on all the lame excuses he has provided. Our leaders need to re-prioritize efforts especially the Hewanorra project (estimated at 400US million). The current estimation, which is flawed at best is estimated at 500US million...hope PM King and his men will be able to provide additional apologies especially when potential lenders estimations may very well be higher.
We need better leadership if St.Lucia is survive this economic down-turn. It's my hope that the media personnel and others who see it best to support this inept government and a PM whi has a penchant on blaming others for his inability to advance himself educationally will not be the very ones crying foul when the selected benefits or prizes become dwindled into complete oblivion.
Kenny???? What Kenny????
Kenny's time has passed!!!!!
I (the first poster) wish to express my thanks to the poster who submitted the list of "cost overruns" incurred by projects implemented by the previous administration. If those figures are correct (I have not been back home to St. Lucia in ages so cannot verify them) then this makes interesting and disturbing reading.
Most developed countries would have been impacted negatively by such mismanagement far less a resource-constrained nation as ours. I am not a legal or economic eagle but aren't these contracts tendered? Furthermore once they have been signed aren't any additional costs borne thereafter the responsibility of the contractor? If that is the case then why on earth are the St. Lucian tax-payers being shafted by their budgetary ineptitude?
Against this backdrop of such potentially crippling financial blows, that is why we have to be ultra-cautious. The current situation makes the need for fiscal circumspection even more dire. I get the sneaky impression from certain posters that the seeming profligacy of the SLP administration presents the UWP with a full licence to engage in wanton wastage antics. This attitude will get us to economic ruin pretty quickly.
I want to clarify one point. I am neither a proponent nor a critic of the proposed airport re-development scheme. However when Señor Tomás unleashed his fury earlier this month, lives, livelihoods, the environment, the economy - in fact the whole country - changed catastrophically.
By most accounts - even if adopting an optimistic outlook - it will take us years to recover from this disaster. That is why certain priorities, plans (including the Hewanorra upgrade) and expectations MUST similarly change to reflect our current circumstances. What was feasible pre-Thomas may not necessarily be so at the moment. As such our focus needs to be re-adjusted accordingly.
Let us not forget that it is not only roads that require urgent attention. Numerous other areas such as our schools, at least one hospital, our agricultural sector - especially bananas, our water catchments and housing were dealt a severe battering. These include some critical sectors which will need immediate and possibly long-term assistance.
YEAH KENNY TIMES HAS PASSED BUT THE SCARS OF CORRUPTION IS STILL VISIBLE AND THE FIGURES ARE CLEAR FOR ALL TO SEE.
HOW CAN WE TRUST A MAN WHO RIPPED OFF THIS COUNTRY AND ALLOW HIM TO RETURN TO THE RINGS OF POWER.
WELL IF ONE CAN VOTE THIS MAN BACK INTO POWER THEY ASKING FOR ST.LUCIA TO BE FINISH
YES, YOU'RE RIGHT.....SAINT LUCIA IS FINISHED.
But I rather lived in Kenny's time than in Stephenson's time. Just ask TOMAS.
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